2022.10.3

GS:

Asian credit spread maintains in a range, expect inflation slow, recession, unexpected rate hikes

Unexpected situations:

• Signs of slowing inflation in a long late cycle. If near term growth risks subside and US rates stabilize, the carry available in Asia credit will likely be attractive.
• 美联储更快和更强的加息对风险资产有更负面的影响
• 如增长压力增加，市场会更加偏好长久期和高等级的信用债

China:

人民银行仍将继续维持宽松的货币政策。最近对房地产行业有更多的政策支持，但地产行业的实际恢复和整体经济的复苏仍受制于新冠清零政策的制约。

US and World:

高盛预期，通胀和经济增长仍将是今年底以前主导风险资产定价的主要因素。